HOOPSPLIT

Damian Lillard's Achilles Return Is Real: 42.9% From Three in 3-0 Start

Lillard buried the game-winner over the Lakers and is averaging 21.7 PPG on a career-best 42.9% from deep. Here's the fantasy read.

Damian Lillard's Achilles Return Is Real: 42.9% From Three in 3-0 Start
BUY LOW
Damian Lillard

35.8 FPTS/G in 2026-27 undersells a healthy Dame shooting 42.9% from deep.

Key numbers
  • 21.7 PPG on 45.2% FG, 42.9% 3PT (2026-27)
  • Game-winning 25-footer vs Lakers, 136-129
  • Missed all of 2025-26 with torn Achilles
  • Our rank #12 overall, #5 at guard
  • Blazers open the season 3-0

Eighteen months after his Achilles tore out from under him in Game 4 against the Pacers, Damian Lillard caught a kickout from Deni Avdija, pump-faked Matisse Thybulle off his feet, and drilled a 25-footer to put away the Lakers 136-129 on Tuesday. If you'd blinked, you'd have thought nothing ever happened. The 36-year-old is averaging 21.7 points on 45.2% shooting and a career-high 42.9% from three for a 3-0 Portland team.

That's the real headline here: the career-ending injury didn't end anything. Lillard missed all of last season (2025-26) after the tear, got stunningly waived by Milwaukee with two years and $113 million left on his deal, and sat in free-agency limbo for two and a half weeks before re-signing with the only franchise that ever made sense. Now he's home, healthy, and shooting the ball as well as he ever has.

Lillard told the California Post the whole ordeal confirmed something about how he operates — that he rises to whatever lands in front of him. He was blunt when asked if he feared coming back a diminished version of himself. Three games in, Ja Morant is already bracing for a celebration every time Dame lets it fly, especially in the fourth.

What the Numbers Actually Say

On our board, Lillard sits at #12 overall and #5 among guards, posting 35.8 fantasy points per game across his first two logged outings this season (2026-27). His last five games sit just 1.6 fantasy points below his season average, which is noise, not a red flag. The efficiency is the story: 45.2% from the floor and 42.9% from deep is elite line for a lead guard, and it's holding up against real defenses.

The one thing to watch is the roster math. Portland loaded up — Avdija is actually out-scoring Lillard in fantasy right now at 41.7 FPTS/G (our #10 overall), with Morant, Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson and Donovan Clingan (27.5 FPTS/G) all needing touches. That depth caps Lillard's usage ceiling and keeps his assist and rebound counts modest. He's a scoring-and-threes specialist in this build, not a do-everything volume monster.

Fantasy verdict: buy low while you still can. A 35.8 FPTS/G average feels pedestrian for a top-12 asset, but it's being dragged down by a tiny sample and a crowded rotation — not by any sign the Achilles is slowing him. Managers who drafted him nervous about the leg should hold tight, and anyone who can pry him loose from a skittish owner should pounce. The shooting is legit, the role is secure, and Dame Time, as of Tuesday night, is very much operational.