Shaq Guarantees a Healthy Joel Embiid — Should Fantasy Managers Buy It?
Shaquille O'Neal says Embiid dethrones Jokic as the league's top big in 2026-27. The catch: Embiid hasn't cleared 60 games since 2022-23.
Elite ceiling at a discount if you can stomach the games-played risk.
- Embiid played just 38 games in 2025-26
- 19 games in 2024-25, 39 in 2023-24
- No 60+ game season since 2022-23 MVP year
- 44.5 fantasy pts/game last season (2025-26)
- Our #11 overall, #2 at center
Shaquille O'Neal went on the record this week with a prediction that should make Sixers fans equal parts thrilled and nervous: Joel Embiid stays healthy in 2026-27 and overtakes Nikola Jokic as the best big man in basketball. On the Stephen A. Smith show, O'Neal said it's time for Embiid to step up, told him to take some Tylenol if that's what it takes, and flat-out called it — Embiid will dominate and pass the Joker.
It's a bold swing given the résumé. Embiid has been in the league since 2014 and has never once cracked 70 games in a season. He suited up for 38 games last year (2025-26), 19 the season before, and 39 the one before that. That's three straight years under 60 games — a long time for a guy who was MVP in 2022-23.
The Numbers Behind the Hype
When Embiid actually plays, he's still a monster. He averaged 26.9 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists across those 38 games last season, good for 44.5 fantasy points per game and our No. 11 overall rank (No. 2 at center). Encouragingly, his last five outings ran +5.1 fantasy points above his season average, so he wasn't limping to the finish.
The Jokic comparison is where Shaq's take gets shaky, though. Jokic put up 27.7 points, 12.9 boards and 10.7 assists over 65 games last season (2025-26) at 62.1 fantasy points per game — our clear No. 1 overall. That's a 17-plus fantasy-point gap per night. Embiid closing it would require both a full season and a career-best assist rate, and Jokic isn't exactly slowing down.
The roster context matters too. With Jaylen Brown now in Philadelphia — our No. 10 overall at 45.2 fantasy points per game last season — Embiid doesn't have to carry the offensive load alone. Fewer minutes and touches could actually help the games-played case Shaq is banking on, even if it trims the raw scoring ceiling.
The Fantasy Verdict
Treat Embiid as a buy-low, not a top-five pick. The per-game production is genuinely elite and his recent form trended up, so if a manager in your league is scared off by three injury-riddled seasons, that's your window. Draft him with a safety net — grab depth at center — and let someone else pay the Jokic price for the sure thing. Shaq's guarantee is fun; your roster still needs a backup plan.
