Nuggets' Win Total Hinges on Aaron Gordon's Knees — and Jokic Does the Rest
Gordon played just 36 games last season and posted 28.8 fantasy points per game. His availability may decide whether Denver clears 50 wins again.
Elite when healthy, but a 36-game 2025-26 is the whole ballgame.
- Gordon: 16.2 pts, 5.8 reb in 36 games (2025-26)
- 28.8 fantasy pts/game last season (2025-26)
- Ranked #105 overall, #37 at position
- Jokic's Nuggets projected to clear 50 wins
- Form: -2.1 fantasy pts over last 5 games
Denver's win total comes down to one word, and it isn't Jokic — it's Gordon. Aaron Gordon played only 36 games last season (2025-26), averaging 16.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists while posting 28.8 fantasy points per game. When he's on the floor, the Nuggets still steamroll people. When he's not, the whole thing wobbles. That's the entire bet here.
Our model leans over on Denver, and the logic is simple: Gordon is healthy right now and looked sharp in preseason, so give him the benefit of the doubt. Pair that with the most stable starting five in the league and the best player on the planet, and 50 wins feels like a floor rather than a ceiling. Jokic doesn't miss that mark with this supporting cast.
The role players matter more than the noise suggests. Cameron Johnson took heat last year but shot 43% from deep and was lights-out after a brutal start — year two should be smoother. DeMar DeRozan isn't a clean fit, but he can theoretically keep the non-Jokic minutes from drowning, which has been Denver's eternal problem.
The Gordon Variable
Here's the catch for fantasy managers: Gordon carries injury risk you can't wave away. A 36-game season is a red flag, and his last five games sat 2.1 fantasy points below his season average. He's ranked #105 overall and #37 at his position — solid, not special, and that ceiling is capped by the minutes next to Jokic and the time he'll inevitably miss.
The upside is real when he suits up. Gordon's efficiency as a cutter and finisher inside Denver's offense makes him a reliable per-game producer, and the Nuggets' continuity means his role isn't going anywhere. He's a dependable mid-round piece — just not one you build around.
The verdict: hold Gordon if you've got him, and temper expectations on draft day. His 28.8 fantasy points per game (2025-26) is nice value at his cost, but the availability question is the whole story. Grab a stash with upside behind him and you'll sleep fine when the knee flares up again.
