Amen Thompson's Jumper: Why Fantasy Managers Shouldn't Hold Their Breath
Thompson shot 21.6% from deep last season, yet still finished as our No. 37 overall player. His fantasy value never needed the three.
Elite stats-stuffer whose fantasy case never hinged on shooting.
- Thompson shot 21.6% from deep in 2025-26
- Our No. 37 overall, No. 18 at position
- 18.3 pts, 7.8 reb, 5.3 ast across 79 games
- 39.5 fantasy pts/game last season (2025-26)
- Last 5 games: +6.7 FPTS vs his season average
Every Houston Rocket is apparently in the best shape of his life this offseason, and every one of them has fixed his jump shot. You've seen the empty-gym clips. Here's the dose of reality for fantasy managers: don't plan your 2026-27 draft board around Amen Thompson suddenly becoming a floor-spacer. He hit just 21.6% from three last season, and the even wilder stat is that when NBA.com flagged his attempts as wide open, the number was identical. Translation: he was already getting clean looks and still couldn't convert.
None of which stopped him from finishing as our No. 37 overall player and No. 18 at his position, averaging 18.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists over a workhorse 79 games. That's 39.5 fantasy points per game (2025-26 actual) without a jumper worth respecting. The lesson is obvious before we even get to the shooting debate: Thompson's fantasy engine runs on counting stats, defense and volume, not on spacing.
The Shooting Comps Don't Agree
The optimistic case leans on Kawhi Leonard, who shot 25.0% from three in college before working with shooting guru Chip Engelland and immediately hitting 37.6% as an NBA rookie. Problem is, Leonard's stroke was never actually broken at the pro level — he's the outlier, not the template. For the record, Leonard sits at our No. 9 overall this season (45.9 FPTS/G in 2025-26).
The slower-burn examples are less encouraging. LeBron James shot 29.0% from deep as a rookie and didn't settle into league-average territory until his ninth season at age 27 (he's still our No. 23 overall at 41.4 FPTS/G last season). Tobias Harris made just 26.1% as a rookie and didn't turn a corner until year six. Thompson muddies all of it — he was a late-arriving 21-year-old rookie and now heads into his age-24, fourth NBA season. By age, he's roughly where Harris was; by experience, he's behind the curve of Engelland's usual success stories.
The honest takeaway is that nobody can project this cleanly, and Thompson is likely never going to be a genuinely good shooter. The realistic goal for Houston is nudging him to around 27-28% so a wide-open three stops being a gift to the defense. That would be meaningful progress — just not the kind that reshapes his fantasy profile overnight.
For managers: hold, and hold confidently. Thompson's last five games trended +6.7 fantasy points above his season average, and that momentum had nothing to do with his jumper. Draft him for the rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, treat any shooting leap as pure upside, and ignore the summer highlight reels. His value doesn't need the three to land — and you shouldn't pay a premium betting that it will.
