Amen Thompson's $208M Bet: Can a Jump Shot Turn Him Into a Star?
Thompson posted 18.3 points, 7.8 boards and 5.3 assists per game in 2025-26. Now Houston's paying him like a cornerstone and asking for one more thing.
Ranked #37 with a rising arrow — the ceiling is higher than the price.
- New deal: 5 years, $208 million
- 2025-26 actual: 18.3 pts, 7.8 reb, 5.3 ast in 79 games
- 39.5 fantasy pts/game last season (2025-26)
- Our rank #37 overall, #18 among guards
- Form: +6.7 fantasy pts over last 5 vs season avg
Houston just handed Amen Thompson a five-year, $208 million contract, and the only thing standing between him and genuine stardom might be a 15-foot jumper. In 2025-26 the fourth-year guard put up career-high numbers across the board — 18.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists in 79 games — good for 39.5 fantasy points per game and a #37 overall spot in our rankings (#18 among guards).
That's a strong return for a 6'7" point guard who entered the league as an athlete first. Thompson made the All-Defensive Team in only his second season, took over as Houston's primary stopper on the opposing team's best perimeter player, and became the engine around VanVleet and Sengun. He slipped off the All-Defensive honors last year, but the offensive leap more than covered it.
Why the Shot Matters
Defenses have figured out the one hole in his game: they pack the paint and dare him to shoot. Thompson thrives near the rim — he blew up playing the dunker spot at power forward when Jabari Smith's injury opened the lineup — but he's struggled to score away from the basket. Houston's answer is bringing in shot specialist Chip Engelland, who's spent a career turning limited shooters into reliable ones.
If Engelland can hand Thompson even a league-average three and a dependable midrange, the whole offense cracks open. That's the difference between an elite two-way starter and an outright superstar. The tools are there; year four is about assembling them.
The Fantasy Takeaway
Here's the context: Sengun is the Rockets' clear fantasy centerpiece at #14 overall (44.1 fantasy pts/game in 2025-26), and VanVleet sits way back at #80. Thompson is the one with the arrow pointing up — his last five games ran +6.7 fantasy points above his season average, and a #37 draft cost undersells a player who already fills the rebound, assist and defensive-stat columns without needing a jumper.
The verdict: buy low. You're paying for a top-40 guard and betting the shooting development bumps him into top-20 territory. Even if the jumper takes time, the floor — elite defense, double-digit boards from a guard, and rising usage — is already roster-worthy. Draft him with confidence and treat any shooting progress as a bonus that could pay off all season.
