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Marvin Bagley III

Marvin Bagley III

RANK #312025-26 RESULTS · PTS LEAGUEF72025-26 9-CAT #348-CAT #37F · Denver NuggetsAge 276' 10"2026-27 seasonPROP GUIDE →
6.0
Points / game
3.4
Rebounds
0.6
Assists
12.3
Minutes
57.6%
FG%
12.2
FPTS / game
+0.9
vs F median
TIER 6 · #31 OVERALLDepth piece — #7 among forwards

Marvin Bagley III is ranked #7 among 15 eligible NBA forwards. He profiles as a bench or matchup-based option — draft late or stream when the schedule lines up.

Percentile60%
2025-26 season results · Computed from official box scores · Points scoring: PTS + 1.2×REB + 1.5×AST + 3×STL + 3×BLK − TO · updated November 12
VALUE PICK

Marvin Bagley III 2026-27 fantasy outlook

22.9Proj FPTS/G · ~1534 / 67 games
15.1–29.2Typical game · middle 50%
#32Projected rank
140.1ADP (ESPN drafts)

We rank him #32 versus an ADP of 140.1 — the market drafts him 225 spots later than we rank him. Strong value if he's still there. Projection drivers: growing workload (21.6 minutes/gm late vs 20.1 season), late-season gains in per-minute production.

INJURY RISK High?AGE/WORKLOAD RISK Low?ROLE SECURITY Unsettled?How we grade risk
Projection updated November 12 · ESPN ADP updated November 12 · Range = 25th–75th percentile of his 2025-26 game log

DEN 2026-27 opening schedule

80 GAMES SCHEDULED
Oct 23
@OKC
Oct 25
NO
Oct 27
GS
Oct 29
@NO
Oct 31
@PHX
Nov 3
POR
Nov 5
TOR
Nov 7
@IND
Nov 10
@HOU
Nov 12
@MEM
Nov 15
@NO
Nov 17
PHX

Marvin Bagley III consistency and floor

10 GAMES
10.4
Floor (p10)
12.2
Average
35.9
Ceiling (p90)
Consistency75%+ of average delivered68%
Boom rate125%+ of average27%
Bust rateunder half of average13%
12.3
Season avg FPTS
12.3
Last 10 FPTS
12.9
Last 5 FPTS

Bagley vs other forwards

PERCENTILE · 159 RANKED
Points6.041
Rebounds3.447
Assists0.624
Steals0.219
Blocks0.460
Minutes12.325
Fantasy PPG12.236
Percentile among all ranked NBA forwards · 99 = best

Bagley fantasy points, last 10 games

2026-27 · ■ BOOM · ■ BUST
30150AVG 12.26.6@OKC9.8NO12.4GS20.5@NO9@PHX12.8POR14.4TOR13.6IND12.6@HOU10.9@MEM
SEASON HIGH 20.5SEASON LOW 6.6LAST 5 AVG 12.9

Marvin Bagley III game log — 2026-27

■ BOOM · ■ BUST
DATEOPPRESULTMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFPTS
Nov 12@MEMW 123-118124210102-60-010.9
Nov 10@HOUL 110-100126300102-20-012.6
Nov 7INDW 114-1021210300003-60-113.6
Nov 5TORW 128-1091410220014-50-114.4
Nov 3PORL 118-110126401012-60-112.8
Oct 31@PHXW 127-120110500100-00-09
Oct 29@NOW 104-91198511113-60-120.5
Oct 27GSL 134-114117200102-30-012.4
Oct 25NOW 141-135 OT95400002-20-09.8
Oct 23@OKCL 96-84112320021-30-06.6
QIs Marvin Bagley III a good fantasy pick?

He's a depth option, not a priority pick: #31 overall, #7 at his position. Draft late or stream based on matchups.

QWhat round should Marvin Bagley III be drafted in?

His current ADP in ESPN drafts is 140.1 (roughly round 15 in a 10-team league). We rank him #32, so he is a value at that price.

QHow many fantasy points will Marvin Bagley III score in 2026-27?

We project 22.9 points per game across an expected 67 games — approximately 1534 points for the season. His typical game last season landed between 15.1 and 29.2 (middle 50% of results), and that puts him #32 in projected scoring.

QHow does Marvin Bagley III rank in category leagues?

Based on 2025-26 production, Marvin Bagley III finished #34 in 9-cat and #37 in 8-cat leagues by per-game z-score value, versus #31 in points formats. Low turnovers make him even more valuable when they count against you.

QHow consistent is Marvin Bagley III for fantasy?

He delivered at least 75% of his average in 68% of games, with a floor of 10.4 and a ceiling of 35.9 fantasy points. He boomed (125%+ of average) in 27% of games and busted (under half his average) in 13%.

Answers computed by HoopSplit from official box scores.