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Chet Holmgren

Chet Holmgren

RANK #452025-26 RESULTS · PTS LEAGUEC82025-26 9-CAT #208-CAT #27C · Oklahoma City ThunderAge 247' 1"2026-27 season
12.0
Points / game
9.3
Rebounds
1.3
Assists
30.0
Minutes
40.7%
FG%
34.5
FPTS / game
+12.3
vs C median
TIER 6 · #45 OVERALLDepth piece — #8 among centers

Chet Holmgren is ranked #8 among 12 eligible NBA centers. He profiles as a bench or matchup-based option — draft late or stream when the schedule lines up.

Percentile42%
2025-26 season results · Computed from official box scores · Points scoring: PTS + 1.2×REB + 1.5×AST + 3×STL + 3×BLK − TO · updated October 27
VALUE PICK

Chet Holmgren 2026-27 fantasy outlook

OUT
35.4Proj FPTS/G · ~2620 / 74 games
27.8–43.2Typical game · middle 50%
#51Projected rank
66.3ADP (ESPN drafts)

We rank him #51 versus an ADP of 66.3 — the market drafts him 20 spots later than we rank him. Strong value if he's still there. Projection drivers: shrinking workload (24.6 minutes/gm late vs 28.3 season), late-season gains in per-minute production.

INJURY RISK High?AGE/WORKLOAD RISK Low?ROLE SECURITY Unsettled?How we grade risk
Projection updated October 27 · ESPN ADP updated October 27 · Range = 25th–75th percentile of his 2025-26 game log

OKC 2026-27 opening schedule

80 GAMES SCHEDULED
Oct 21
@SA
Oct 23
DEN
Oct 25
LAC
Oct 27
PHX
Oct 29
@DAL
Nov 1
@HOU
Nov 3
@CLE
Nov 5
CLE
Nov 7
@MEM
Nov 8
WSH
Nov 11
@POR
Nov 12
@POR

Chet Holmgren consistency and floor

3 GAMES
20.9
Floor (p10)
34.5
Average
49.9
Ceiling (p90)
Consistency75%+ of average delivered77%
Boom rate125%+ of average21%
Bust rateunder half of average6%

Holmgren vs other centers

PERCENTILE · 64 RANKED
Points12.077
Rebounds9.392
Assists1.356
Steals0.781
Blocks3.099
Minutes30.086
Fantasy PPG34.591
Percentile among all ranked NBA centers · 99 = best

Holmgren fantasy points, last 3 games

2026-27 · ■ BOOM · ■ BUST
60300AVG 34.536.4@SA47.4DEN19.8LAC
SEASON HIGH 47.4SEASON LOW 19.8LAST 5 AVG 34.5

Chet Holmgren game log — 2026-27

■ BOOM · ■ BUST
DATEOPPRESULTMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFPTS
Oct 25LACW 108-1013110401113-102-419.8
Oct 23DENW 96-8428121721435-90-147.4
Oct 21@SAW 116-1043114720413-80-136.4

More on Holmgren and the C board

Centers rankings (2025-26 results)2025-26 full rankings2026-27 draft projections
QIs Chet Holmgren a good fantasy pick?

He's a depth option, not a priority pick: #45 overall, #8 at his position. Draft late or stream based on matchups.

QWhat round should Chet Holmgren be drafted in?

His current ADP in ESPN drafts is 66.3 (roughly round 7 in a 10-team league). We rank him #51, so he is a value at that price.

QHow many fantasy points will Chet Holmgren score in 2026-27?

We project 35.4 points per game across an expected 74 games — approximately 2620 points for the season. His typical game last season landed between 27.8 and 43.2 (middle 50% of results), and that puts him #51 in projected scoring.

QHow does Chet Holmgren rank in category leagues?

Based on 2025-26 production, Chet Holmgren finished #20 in 9-cat and #27 in 8-cat leagues by per-game z-score value, versus #45 in points formats. Low turnovers make him even more valuable when they count against you.

QHow consistent is Chet Holmgren for fantasy?

He delivered at least 75% of his average in 77% of games, with a floor of 20.9 and a ceiling of 49.9 fantasy points. He boomed (125%+ of average) in 21% of games and busted (under half his average) in 6%.

Answers computed by HoopSplit from official box scores.