HOOPSPLIT
NBA / Rankings / Aaron Nesmith
Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith

RANK #172025-26 RESULTS · PTS LEAGUEG82025-26 9-CAT #238-CAT #22G · Indiana PacersAge 276' 5"2026-27 season
11.0
Points / game
2.5
Rebounds
1.5
Assists
19.5
Minutes
41.2%
FG%
14.8
FPTS / game
-2.0
vs G median
TIER 5 · #17 OVERALLDepth piece — #8 among guards

Aaron Nesmith is ranked #8 among 28 eligible NBA guards. He profiles as a bench or matchup-based option — draft late or stream when the schedule lines up. He closed the season hot — 1.6 points per game above his average over the final five games on essentially the same workload — an efficiency spike that may not fully carry over.

Percentile75%
2025-26 season results · Computed from official box scores · Points scoring: PTS + 1.2×REB + 1.5×AST + 3×STL + 3×BLK − TO · updated October 27
VALUE PICK

Aaron Nesmith 2026-27 fantasy outlook

23.6Proj FPTS/G · ~1322 / 56 games
17.1–29.2Typical game · middle 50%
#19Projected rank
140.4ADP (ESPN drafts)

We rank him #19 versus an ADP of 140.4 — the market drafts him 176 spots later than we rank him. Strong value if he's still there. Projection drivers: stable workload (29.6 minutes/gm), a late-season decline in per-minute production.

INJURY RISK High?AGE/WORKLOAD RISK Low?ROLE SECURITY Unsettled?How we grade risk
Projection updated October 27 · ESPN ADP updated October 27 · Range = 25th–75th percentile of his 2025-26 game log

IND 2026-27 opening schedule

80 GAMES SCHEDULED
Oct 22
@NO
Oct 23
DAL
Oct 25
@BKN
Oct 27
@MIL
Oct 28
PHI
Oct 31
@MIA
Nov 1
BKN
Nov 3
ATL
Nov 5
@MEM
Nov 7
DEN
Nov 10
@DAL
Nov 12
WSH

Aaron Nesmith consistency and floor

3 GAMES
12.4
Floor (p10)
14.8
Average
37.2
Ceiling (p90)
Consistency75%+ of average delivered71%
Boom rate125%+ of average24%
Bust rateunder half of average7%

Nesmith vs other guards

PERCENTILE · 214 RANKED
Points11.070
Rebounds2.553
Assists1.540
Steals0.014
Blocks0.043
Minutes19.545
Fantasy PPG14.844
Percentile among all ranked NBA guards · 99 = best

Nesmith fantasy points, last 3 games

2026-27 · ■ BOOM · ■ BUST
30150AVG 14.814.3DAL15.2@BKN19.5@MIL
SEASON HIGH 19.5SEASON LOW 14.3LAST 5 AVG 16.4

Aaron Nesmith game log — 2026-27

■ BOOM · ■ BUST
DATEOPPRESULTMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFPTS
Oct 27@MILL 110-1022113011115-113-719.5
Oct 25@BKNW 136-1091913120025-102-515.2
Oct 23DALL 121-105209410012-71-514.3

More on Nesmith and the G board

Guards rankings (2025-26 results)2025-26 full rankings2026-27 draft projections
QIs Aaron Nesmith a good fantasy pick?

He's a depth option, not a priority pick: #17 overall, #8 at his position. Draft late or stream based on matchups.

QWhat round should Aaron Nesmith be drafted in?

His current ADP in ESPN drafts is 140.4 (roughly round 15 in a 10-team league). We rank him #19, so he is a value at that price.

QHow many fantasy points will Aaron Nesmith score in 2026-27?

We project 23.6 points per game across an expected 56 games — approximately 1322 points for the season. His typical game last season landed between 17.1 and 29.2 (middle 50% of results), and that puts him #19 in projected scoring.

QHow does Aaron Nesmith rank in category leagues?

Based on 2025-26 production, Aaron Nesmith finished #23 in 9-cat and #22 in 8-cat leagues by per-game z-score value, versus #17 in points formats.

QHow consistent is Aaron Nesmith for fantasy?

He delivered at least 75% of his average in 71% of games, with a floor of 12.4 and a ceiling of 37.2 fantasy points. He boomed (125%+ of average) in 24% of games and busted (under half his average) in 7%.

Answers computed by HoopSplit from official box scores.