Spurs Start Fox on Opening Night, But Dylan Harper's Rise Spells Trouble
San Antonio keeps De'Aaron Fox in a crowded three-guard starting five, but the setup looks like a stopgap that caps his fantasy ceiling.
A bench role is likely coming; cash in while he's still starting.
- Fox: 18.6 pts, 6.2 ast, 34.7 FPTS/G in 2025-26
- Harper is the 2025 No. 2 overall pick
- Three-guard lineup was outscored in RS and PS last year
- Fox ranks #54 overall (#25 at guard) in our model
- Harper beat Phoenix by 10 in just 25 preseason possessions
San Antonio has answered its biggest lineup question of the season, and the answer is temporary. Dylan Harper, the No. 2 pick in the 2025 draft, will start opening night next to Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell and De'Aaron Fox. That's three ball-dominant guards sharing the floor — and Fox, who averaged 18.6 points, 6.2 assists and 34.7 fantasy points per game across 72 games last season (2025-26, actual), is the one whose future in this group looks shakiest.
The math is unkind. San Antonio barely touched the three-guard look last year because it got outscored in both the regular-season and postseason samples. The trio flashed a plus-10 run in 25 preseason possessions against Phoenix, but the guards shot a combined 2 of 9 from three in that stretch. Harper, Fox and Castle are all downhill drivers with iffy jumpers — exactly the kind of overlap that lets defenses sag off and clog the paint.
Why Fox Is the Odd Man Out
The Spurs thrived last season when they prioritized shooting, outscoring opponents by 17.6 points per 100 possessions with Julian Champagnie flanking two guards and Wembanyama. Harper is too good to sit, Castle is too good to demote, and Fox is the oldest and most expensive of the three. The endgame is obvious: two guards, two shooters, Wembanyama. Fox is the logical bench candidate — just not yet.
San Antonio is slow-playing this for human reasons. Fox requested the trade that landed him here, presumably expecting to run the offense on a contender. Benching a max-contract All-Star over one injured Finals series risks both his morale and whatever trade value remains. The precedent is Russell Westbrook, who was eased out of starting jobs on both L.A. teams before those rosters took off. Sometimes you sacrifice a few October games for a June payoff.
The Fantasy Fallout
For managers, this is a warning flare. Fox opens as the starting point guard, so his floor is safe for now, and our model has him at #54 overall (#25 among guards). But a crowded backcourt caps his usage, and the writing is on the wall — the moment the lineup data turns ugly, Fox is the one who moves. Harper, meanwhile, is a long-term stash ceiling play at #159, worth monitoring as his minutes climb.
The move: sell Fox high while he's still the nominal starter and the headlines read 'opening-night five.' His name value outstrips his likely role by midseason. If you're holding, do it with eyes open and a backup plan. This backcourt experiment has a shelf life, and Fox is the ingredient most likely to get pulled off the shelf.
